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Connected Guides
  • Credit risk: default probabilities and credit spreads
  • Value at Risk and expected shortfall
  • Systemic risk and contagion

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Systemic Risk: Network Explorer

Build a financial network of stylised banks and funds, see who is systemically important and how a shock could travel through it.

Total assets
$3605bn
Average leverage
18.9×
Density of links
10%
Largest exposure / lender equity
36.3×
Highest DebtRank
0.415
Single points of failure (DebtRank above 0.2)
5

Network

Structure
Random seed: 3
Size by
Colour by

Institution

Select an institution in the graph or the matrix to see its balance sheet, ratios and counterparties.

Predict: the most systemic institution

Click the institution whose failure would do the most damage to the system. The ranking stays hidden until you choose.

Explain: network shape

Why?

Same banks, same total lending: in a complete network or in a ring, which is more fragile to one default?

About this tool

Systemic risk is the danger that trouble at one financial institution spreads through the system and damages many others, not only the one that failed. Banks, funds and clearing houses lend to each other, trade derivatives with each other and hold many of the same assets, so the financial system is really a network. This tool lets you draw that network, rank institutions by how much damage their failure would cause, and watch a shock travel through it. Every institution is a stylised archetype, such as a dealer bank or a money market fund, not a real firm.

Frequently asked questions

What is systemic risk?

It is the risk of a chain reaction: one institution's distress forces losses, asset sales or withdrawals on others until a large part of the system is impaired. It differs from ordinary risk because the damage does not come only from the first failure but from how institutions are connected. A small bank can be harmless on its own yet dangerous if it sits at the centre of many obligations, which is why regulators study the network and not just each balance sheet.

How does a shock spread through a financial network?

Through three main channels. Counterparty losses: when a borrower defaults, its lenders write off part of what they were owed. Fire sales: a stressed institution sells assets to cut leverage, prices fall, and everyone holding the same assets loses value. Funding runs: short-term lenders sense weakness, refuse to roll over and withdraw cash, forcing yet more sales. The channels reinforce each other, so contagion can be far larger than any single link suggests.

Why is a financial network called robust yet fragile?

Dense links spread a small shock across many balance sheets, so each absorbs only a little and the system survives. Beyond a certain size the same links carry the shock to everyone at once and turn a few failures into many. Connectivity therefore helps against small shocks and hurts against large ones. The shock simulation lets you sweep the size of the first loss and find where a network flips from absorbing the blow to amplifying it.

Are these real banks?

No. Every institution here is a stylised archetype with round-number balance sheets, such as a dealer bank, a money market fund or a clearing house. The historical episodes use real dates and public events as context, but no figures are attached to real firms. The aim is to show mechanisms and compare network shapes, not to estimate how any actual institution would fare, so do not read the numbers as predictions.

Learn the theory

  • Credit risk: default probabilities and credit spreads — Hazard rates, survival probabilities, recovery, pricing defaultable bonds and the CDS spread.
  • Value at Risk and expected shortfall — Loss quantiles, the tail beyond them, normal versus fat-tailed returns, and the square-root-of-time rule.
  • Systemic risk and contagion — Networks of interbank exposures, default cascades, fire sales and runs: how a small shock grows into a system-wide crisis and what makes a network fragile.