Quant Sandbox
DerivativesPortfolio & RiskFixed IncomeCorporate FinanceProbability & MeasureStochastic ModelsMarket MicrostructureGuide
Probability & Measure
Probability Space
σ-Algebras
InformationFiltration
Lebesgue Measure
Random Variables
SpinnerDistribution function
Lebesgue Integral
Riemann vs LebesgueExpectation by sorting
Convergence
Escaping massModes of convergence
Conditional Expectation
Best guessChange of measure
Connected Guides
  • Probability spaces and Kolmogorov's axioms
  • Measure theory in option pricing
  • Probability spaces, σ-algebras and random variables

© 2026 Quant Sandbox · A study aid for quantitative finance

Privacy & dataNo cookies

This site does not use cookies and asks for no personal data. It keeps a few small settings in your browser's local storage — your chosen theme and language, the sidebar layout, and your progress and answers in the Guides — so it remembers them on your next visit. This data never leaves your device; clearing your browser storage removes it. Inputs you change can also be captured in the page URL, so you can share or bookmark a specific setup. The site uses Vercel Web Analytics, a privacy-friendly, cookieless service that records only anonymous, aggregated usage (such as page views) without identifying you or tracking you across other sites.

Probability space

Controls

Event A
0.50
0.11
Event B
0.30
0.050.5
Darts
2,000
1020000

Drag A and B on the board to move them.

Dart board: probability is area
0½10½1ABΩ = the board · P(event) = its areaDart frequency → area0.800.10101002,000darts (log scale)0.4621Inclusion–exclusionP(A)0.2500+ P(B)0.2827− P(A ∩ B)0.0707= P(A ∪ B)0.4621
P(A ∪ B), exact area
0.4621
darts in A ∪ B
939 / 2,000 = 0.470
P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
0.4621

About this tool

A probability space has three parts: a set of possible outcomes, a collection of events you are allowed to ask about, and a rule that gives every event a probability. Here the outcomes are the points of a square board and a dart lands at a uniformly random point. An event is a region you can draw, and its probability is its area. Throw more and more darts and the share that land in a region settles on that area. The same picture shows why probabilities of disjoint events add and why overlapping events need inclusion–exclusion.

Frequently asked questions

What is a probability space?

It is the minimal setup for talking about chance: a set Ω of outcomes, a family of events (subsets of Ω you may ask about) and a probability measure P that gives every event a number between 0 and 1. P must give the whole space probability 1 and must add up over disjoint events. Random variables, expectations and everything else in probability are built on these three objects. On this page Ω is the unit square, the events are the regions you draw, and P is area.

Why is probability the same as area here?

Because the dart is thrown uniformly: no part of the board is favoured, so a region half as big is hit half as often. Area is also additive. Cut a region into pieces that do not overlap and their areas add up to the total, exactly as the probabilities of disjoint events must. That is why a uniform dart turns geometry into probability. Aim at the centre instead and probability stops matching area; you would need a different measure P on the same board.

What should I try on the page?

Draw two events that overlap and compare the dart frequency of each with its area. Then look at the union: the area of A or B is the area of A plus the area of B minus the area of both, which is inclusion–exclusion. Slide the events apart until they are disjoint and the overlap term vanishes. Throw a few hundred darts, then thousands, and watch the hit share wobble at first and then settle on the exact area.

A line has area zero. Can a dart land on it?

A dart always lands somewhere, so it lands on a point, and that point lies on many lines. Yet for any one line fixed in advance the chance is exactly zero, because a line has area 0. Probability zero does not mean impossible; it means almost surely not. With continuous outcomes single points carry no probability and only regions do. The idea returns on the Lebesgue measure page.

Learn the theory

  • Probability spaces and Kolmogorov's axioms — Probability as a measure of total mass one: outcomes, events and axioms, discrete and continuous models, infinite coin tossing, almost sure events.
  • Measure theory in option pricing — How the measure theory and probability of this track meet in option pricing: equivalent measures and densities, information, conditional expectation, limits.
  • Probability spaces, σ-algebras and random variables — Sample space, σ-algebra, probability measure, measurable maps and the σ-algebra generated by a variable.